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工業技術研究院

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廠區用電需求預測技術

技術簡介

企業為節省電費而與台電簽定契約用電，約定15分鐘平均最高需量為契約容量，現行對超約用電容量在契約容量10％以下按2倍計收基本電費，超過10％按3倍計收基本電費，為免額外增加用電成本，預測15分鐘後用電量是重要課提。其技術效益能協助企業控制電力需量，避免超約用電所衍生之額外生產成本。

特色與創新

  • 以LS-SVR為預測核心，於應用架構與資料前處理上提出多種改良方式，包括：非穩態訊息分析模組、重要訊號挑選、差值預測、動態down sampling取樣等。
  • 採用CART演算法，可同時支援數值型式（如：氣溫）與類別形式（如：原料種類）的決策迴歸樹發展耗電量評估模。
  • 可設定特定分鐘後的預測用電量，其95%信賴區間。
廠區用電需求預測技術。
廠區用電需求預測技術。



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